Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 10:27 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Top 20 · —
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Stored reference
Top 20 31%Leader of 3 outcomes
Top 20 31%Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$10.3K
Liquidity
$4.1K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$7.3K
Bid / Ask
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Top 20Spread
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Comments
2
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 24, 26, 3:36 AM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · Top 20
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Debut?
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Manifold MarketsWhich AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Moonshot AI Kimi K3.1 Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) holds a rank within the specified top ranks when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must be Moonshot AI's Kimi K3.1 Pro (released October 23, 2026), including its Highspeed variant, listed under a name or model identifier that includes "Kimi" and "K3.1", regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, or reasoning or effort labels.
- For example, Kimi K3.1 Pro, Kimi K3.1 Pro Highspeed, or kimi-k3.1-pro, including with a label such as "(Max)" or "(High)", would qualify, while other models, such as Kimi K3 (Max), Kimi K2.8 Preview, or any later Kimi version, will not qualify.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None), in the "Models" view, and with no other filters applied will be used to resolve this market.
- A model debuts within the specified top ranks if its displayed rank at the check time is equal to or better than the specified rank (for example, a displayed rank of 4 is within the the named outcome and the the named outcome).