How will presidential historians rank Biden relative to other past presidents?
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Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 11:49 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
21-25 31.9%Leader of 10 outcomes
21-25 31.9%Forecasters
30
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Resolves according to the first C-SPAN Presidential Historian Survey where Biden is ranked (I think this will be the year after he leaves office) https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2021/?page=overall
- If the Presidential Historian Survey is never released again, then resolves YES for Other and all other options resolve NO.
- The methodology in 2021 was: "a survey in which participants used a 1 ("not effective") to 10 ("very effective") scale to rate each president on 10 qualities of presidential leadership: Public Persuasion, Crisis Leadership, Economic Management, Moral Authority, International Relations, Administrative Skills, Relations with Congress, Vision/Setting an Agenda, Pursued Equal Justice for All and Performance Within the Context of the Times.
- Surveys are distributed to historians, professors and other professional observers of the presidency who are drawn from databases of C-SPAN programming, research in the field and suggestions from our academic advisers.
- Each cycle, we reach out to past participants and add new names to the list to maintain a well-rounded list of invited participants.
- This year, 142 completed the survey, up from 91 in 2017.
