Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?
0.5 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionUS Politics2y
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 68.3%
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$2.3K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
30.0% / 33.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Feb 17, 26, 10:44 PMNov 7, 28, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes32%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Low | 69% | — | $0 | $2.3K | 21 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets95% match · auto | — | 66% | — | — | — | 30 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?
2y
66.2%
33.8%
Community forecast8 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
- Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1Jul 510d of dataJul 16
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
- Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.