What are the current odds for Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028?

Manifold Markets prices Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 15.3% as of October 10, 2026.

When does Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 resolve?

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 is scheduled to resolve on August 15, 2028.

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria

The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, Smarkets, Kalshi, Robinhood (Rothera), Polymarket, Limitless, ForecastEx, Myriad.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Other 32%-0.4pt

Leader of 8 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

-1.0 pts

Market data

Updated 6 hours ago

Stale

May 18, 26, 11:15 AM UTCAug 15, 28, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee

Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?

Age of 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?

Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?

Rules

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the individual who officially secures the Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States in the 2028 election.
The market resolves based on the results of the 2028 Democratic National Convention.
If a candidate other than those listed officially receives the nomination, the "Other" option will resolve to YES.
In the event that the Democratic Party fails to field a presidential nominee, or if the election is cancelled, the market will resolve N/A. Official confirmation will be sourced from the Democratic National Committee (https://democrats.org/) and major news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters).