Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 8, 2026, 4:33 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastGavin Newsom 21.7%-0.1%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 days ago
StaleMay 18, 26, 11:15 AMAug 15, 28, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Gavin Newsom22%
Compare venues· Other
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall78% match · auto | Medium | 20% | — | $4M | $103.8M | 7 minutes ago | Open → |
 Polymarket80% match · verified | Medium | 0% | — | $1.1M | $70.8M | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
 Smarkets64% match · linked | Low | 21% | — | $1 | $0 | 5 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless80% match · verified | Low | 23% | — | $0 | $0 | 5 minutes ago | Open → |
 Myriad78% match · linked | Low | 1% | — | $0 | $0 | 5 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets80% match · linked | — | 20% | — | — | — | 30 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 34% | — | — | — | 2 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
-0.4%19%
-0.9%14%
-2.1%10%
+125 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.2B
24h Vol$1.1M
POLYMARKETAlso available on Manifold Markets
Democratic Nominee for 2028 Presidential Election
1y
7.1%
20%
6%
+14 more outcomes
Community forecast21 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Limitless
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
23%
13.9%
5.5%
+3 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$12.2K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Kalshi
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
2y
0%
-0.1%0%
-1.0%0%
+43 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$150.9M
24h Vol$4M
KALSHIAlso available on Myriad
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
4.7%73y
+0.1%48.3%
-0.1%4.5%
-0.1%22.1%
+29 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
MYRIADAlso available on Smarkets
Democratic Presidential Nominee
13.5%
0.1%
2.6%
+19 more outcomes
32 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$10.5K
24h Vol$1
SMARKETSRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the individual who officially secures the Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States in the 2028 election.
- The market resolves based on the results of the 2028 Democratic National Convention.
- If a candidate other than those listed officially receives the nomination, the "Other" option will resolve to YES.
- In the event that the Democratic Party fails to field a presidential nominee, or if the election is cancelled, the market will resolve N/A.
- Official confirmation will be sourced from the Democratic National Committee (https://democrats.org/) and major news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the individual who officially secures the Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States in the 2028 election.
- The market resolves based on the results of the 2028 Democratic National Convention.
- If a candidate other than those listed officially receives the nomination, the "Other" option will resolve to YES.
- In the event that the Democratic Party fails to field a presidential nominee, or if the election is cancelled, the market will resolve N/A.
- Official confirmation will be sourced from the Democratic National Committee (https://democrats.org/) and major news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters).