MyriadCheck availabilityNo KYCLimited verified dataData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Oct 5, 2026, 11:36 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
Gavin Newsom 66.3%+0.3ptLeader of 32 outcomes
Market quality
22 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownTraders
5,514
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Feb 24, 26, 2:41 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 12:01 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?
PolymarketDemocratic Presidential Nominee
SmarketsIf Gavin Newsom is the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028, who will be the Vice Presidential nominee?
Manifold MarketsDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Manifold MarketsDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
LimitlessWill the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?
Manifold MarketsRules
### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date until the nomination is officially determined. - **Market Close:** This market remains open until a resolution is achieved. - **Resolution Deadline:** The market will resolve as soon as an outcome is reached.
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - This market resolves to the **individual candidate who officially wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States**. - If a candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.” - Confirmation will rely on the Democratic Party’s **official communications**, as well as reporting from: - **Associated Press** - **Reuters** - **Fox News**
- ### **Resolution Details:**
- - Once the Democratic National Committee (DNC) or the candidate formally announces and accepts the nomination, the market resolves immediately. - If a candidate later withdraws, is replaced, or is removed before Election Day, this does not impact the already resolved outcome. - Superdelegate counts, internal party projections, or unofficial announcements are insufficient unless they are formally confirmed by the party or supported by the resolution sources.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Democratic Nominee for 2028 Presidential Election · Gavin Newsom 17%
- Also available on Smarkets — Democratic Presidential Nominee · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 19%
- Also available on Gemini — 2028 Democratic Nominee for President? · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 19%
- Also available on Kalshi — 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Jon Ossoff 17%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee · JOSS 19%
- Also available on Polymarket — Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 ·
