Data quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Jul 10, 2026, 6:13 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current implied probability
Gavin Newsom 48.3%+0.1%Leader of 32 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
-
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Feb 24, 26, 2:41 PMJan 1, 00, 12:01 AM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Gavin Newsom48%
Compare venues· Gavin Newsom
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall74% match · auto | Medium | 20% | 0pt | $4M | $103.8M | 14 minutes ago | Open → |
 Polymarket78% match · auto | Medium | 19% | -1pt | $1.1M | $70.1M | 1 minute ago | Open → |
 Smarkets64% match · linked | Low | 21% | +1pt | $1 | $0 | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
 MyriadThis page | Low | 48% | +28pt | $0 | $0 | 12 minutes ago | |
 Limitless78% match · linked | Low | 23% | +3pt | $0 | $0 | 13 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets78% match · linked | — | 20% | 0pt | — | — | 30 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets78% match · linked | — | 22% | +2pt | — | — | 2 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
-0.4%19%
-0.5%14%
-2.1%10%
+125 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.2B
24h Vol$1.1M
POLYMARKETAlso available on Manifold Markets
Democratic Nominee for 2028 Presidential Election
1y
7.1%
20%
6%
+14 more outcomes
Community forecast21 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
-0.1%21.7%
+0.6%11.7%
-0.1%6.5%
+5 more outcomes
Community forecast13 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Limitless
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
23%
13.9%
5.5%
+3 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$12.2K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Kalshi
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
2y
0%
-0.1%0%
-1.0%0%
+43 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$150.9M
24h Vol$4M
KALSHIAlso available on Smarkets
Democratic Presidential Nominee
13.5%
0.1%
2.6%
+19 more outcomes
32 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$10.5K
24h Vol$1
SMARKETSRules
### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date until the nomination is officially determined. - **Market Close:** This market remains open until a resolution is achieved. - **Resolution Deadline:** The market will resolve as soon as an outcome is reached.
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - This market resolves to the **individual candidate who officially wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States**. - If a candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.” - Confirmation will rely on the Democratic Party’s **official communications**, as well as reporting from: - **Associated Press** - **Reuters** - **Fox News**
- ### **Resolution Details:**
- - Once the Democratic National Committee (DNC) or the candidate formally announces and accepts the nomination, the market resolves immediately. - If a candidate later withdraws, is replaced, or is removed before Election Day, this does not impact the already resolved outcome. - Superdelegate counts, internal party projections, or unofficial announcements are insufficient unless they are formally confirmed by the party or supported by the resolution sources.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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POLYMARKETActive in these topics
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### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date until the nomination is officially determined. - **Market Close:** This market remains open until a resolution is achieved. - **Resolution Deadline:** The market will resolve as soon as an outcome is reached.
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - This market resolves to the **individual candidate who officially wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States**. - If a candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.” - Confirmation will rely on the Democratic Party’s **official communications**, as well as reporting from: - **Associated Press** - **Reuters** - **Fox News**
- ### **Resolution Details:**
- - Once the Democratic National Committee (DNC) or the candidate formally announces and accepts the nomination, the market resolves immediately. - If a candidate later withdraws, is replaced, or is removed before Election Day, this does not impact the already resolved outcome. - Superdelegate counts, internal party projections, or unofficial announcements are insufficient unless they are formally confirmed by the party or supported by the resolution sources.