Data quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Aug 7, 2026, 3:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Gavin Newsom 44.3%Leader of 32 outcomes
Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownTraders
5,243
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Feb 24, 26, 2:41 PMJan 1, 00, 12:01 AM
Trends
Rules
### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date until the nomination is officially determined. - **Market Close:** This market remains open until a resolution is achieved. - **Resolution Deadline:** The market will resolve as soon as an outcome is reached.
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - This market resolves to the **individual candidate who officially wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States**. - If a candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.” - Confirmation will rely on the Democratic Party’s **official communications**, as well as reporting from: - **Associated Press** - **Reuters** - **Fox News**
- ### **Resolution Details:**
- - Once the Democratic National Committee (DNC) or the candidate formally announces and accepts the nomination, the market resolves immediately. - If a candidate later withdraws, is replaced, or is removed before Election Day, this does not impact the already resolved outcome. - Superdelegate counts, internal party projections, or unofficial announcements are insufficient unless they are formally confirmed by the party or supported by the resolution sources.
Prediction Source Comparison
CoinRithm reference Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 18% · 5 venues · 3 pt venue spread
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Democratic Nominee for 2028 Presidential Election · Gavin Newsom 24%
- Also available on Smarkets — Democratic Presidential Nominee · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 18%
- Also available on Gemini — 2028 Democratic Nominee for President? · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 22%
- Also available on Kalshi — 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 18%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee · AOCA 20%
- Also available on Polymarket — Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 21%
- Also available on Limitless — Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 20%
- Also available on ForecastEx — Will J.B. Pritzker win the Democratic Nomination for US President in 2028? · No 96%
Open markets
Politics
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18.8%
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16.8%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt12.9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $193.1M
- 24h Vol
- $2.4M
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham-1.0pt58.7%
- Ralph Norman33%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.3M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+3.0pt76%
- October 31+7.5pt60%
- September 30+5.0pt41%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva61.8%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.8pt34.3%
- Renan Santos-0.6pt2.9%
+15 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party85.9%
- Republican Party-1.0pt14.1%
- Total Vol
- $24.6M
- 24h Vol
- $546.4K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028?
- Myriad prices Gavin Newsom at 44% as of August 25, 2026.
- When does Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 resolve?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.
- How is Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 settled?
- Myriad settles this market as follows: ### **Market Dates:**
- Where else is Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, Smarkets, Gemini, Kalshi, Robinhood (Rothera), Polymarket, Limitless, ForecastEx.