MyriadCheck availabilityNo KYCLimited verified dataData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Oct 10, 2026, 7:34 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
JD Vance 48.6%-0.1ptLeader of 32 outcomes
Market quality
22 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownTraders
5,221
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Feb 24, 26, 2:33 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 12:01 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will be the first time a Republican presidential candidate wins D.C.?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?
PolymarketWill a Trump family member be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?
KalshiRepublican Presidential Nominee
SmarketsWill JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028?
FutuurWill the Republican presidential nominee in 2028 win any state Trump didn't win?
Manifold MarketsRules
### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date until the nomination is officially determined. - **Market Close:** This market remains open until a resolution is achieved. - **Resolution Deadline:** The market will resolve as soon as an outcome is reached.
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - This market resolves to the **individual candidate who officially wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for President of the United States**. - If candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.” - Confirmation will rely on the Republican Party’s **official communications**, as well as reporting from: - **Associated Press** - **Reuters** - **Fox News**
- ### **Resolution Details:**
- - Once the Republican National Committee (RNC) or the candidate formally announces and accepts the nomination, the market resolves immediately. - If a candidate later withdraws, is replaced, or is removed before Election Day, this does not impact the already resolved outcome. - Superdelegate counts, internal party projections, or unofficial announcements are insufficient unless they are formally confirmed by the party or supported by the resolution sources.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Limitless — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 · J.D. Vance 24%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 · J.D. Vance 46%
- Also available on PredictIt — Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · JD Vance 40%
- Also available on Polymarket — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 · J.D. Vance 48%
- Also available on Kalshi — 2028 Republican presidential nominee · J.D. Vance 43%
- Also available on Smarkets — Republican Presidential Nominee
