Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 27, 2026, 5:23 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastNo 66.2%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 30 days ago
StaleJun 7, 26, 10:00 PMAug 31, 28, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes34%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall95% match · auto | Low | 69% | — | $0 | $2.3K | 13 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 66% | — | — | — | 30 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?
0.5 pts2y
68.3%
+0.0pt31.7%
49 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$3.3K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKETRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Related Markets
AL-05 House Election Winner
$9.5KRepublican Party: 92%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
FL-25 Democratic Primary Winner
$7.5KJared Moskowitz: 83%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?
$6.9KFishback 15–20%: 39%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWho will be the 2026 Republican nominee for Governor of Florida?
$1.8KByron Donalds: 95.6%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?
$1.4KKamala Harris (Vice President): 3.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
WY-AL Republican nominee?
$1.1KChuck Gray: 63%
KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket odds swing: Eizenkot hits 51% as Israel campaign kicks offBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.85% as Epstein files critique hits tapeBlockchain.NewsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.