Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJun 7, 26, 10:00 PM UTCAug 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the official Democratic nominee for President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election is a woman.
- It will resolve to NO if the nominee is a man or does not identify as a woman.
- Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by the official nomination at the 2028 Democratic National Convention (scheduled for August 7–10, 2028) or the official nominee certified by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) if the selection is conducted via an alternative official process (e.g., a virtual roll call).
- Gender Identity: The gender of the nominee will be determined by their public self-identification at the time of nomination.
- Edge Cases: If a candidate is officially nominated but subsequently withdraws, dies, or is replaced after the formal conclusion of the nominating convention or official selection process, the market will still resolve based on the identity of the person who originally accepted the nomination.