Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJun 7, 26, 10:00 PM UTCAug 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?
PolymarketDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Kalshi2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee
Robinhood (Rothera)Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Manifold MarketsAge of 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the official Democratic nominee for President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election is a woman.
- It will resolve to NO if the nominee is a man or does not identify as a woman.
- Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by the official nomination at the 2028 Democratic National Convention (scheduled for August 7–10, 2028) or the official nominee certified by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) if the selection is conducted via an alternative official process (e.g., a virtual roll call).
- Gender Identity: The gender of the nominee will be determined by their public self-identification at the time of nomination.
- Edge Cases: If a candidate is officially nominated but subsequently withdraws, dies, or is replaced after the formal conclusion of the nominating convention or official selection process, the market will still resolve based on the identity of the person who originally accepted the nomination.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.6pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+41.0pt56%
- Nicolás Maduro-39.9pt43%
- No Head of State-0.1pt1%
+13 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $706.6M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $221.9M
- 24h Vol
- $635.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep-1.0pt58.6%
- D-House, R-Senate30.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.2pt10.1%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.7M
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
- What will Trump say this week?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 76% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? resolve?
- Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? is scheduled to resolve on August 31, 2028.
- How is Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria
- Where else is Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? listed?
- The same question is also listed on PredictIt, Polymarket.