Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 10, 2026, 8:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastKamala Harris 7.1%Leader of 17 outcomes
Forecasters
21
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 30 days ago
StaleDec 23, 24, 11:29 PMJul 1, 28, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Kamala Harris7%
Compare venues· Gavin Newsom
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall88% match · verified | Medium | 20% | — | $4.1M | $103.9M | 11 minutes ago | Open → |
 Polymarket87% match · verified | Medium | 19% | — | $1.2M | $70.7M | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
 Smarkets64% match · linked | Low | 21% | — | $1 | $0 | 9 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless88% match · verified | Low | 23% | — | $0 | $0 | 9 minutes ago | Open → |
 Myriad78% match · linked | Low | 48% | — | $0 | $0 | 8 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 20% | — | — | — | 30 days ago | |
| Manifold Markets80% match · linked | — | 22% | — | — | — | 2 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
2y
0%
-0.1%0%
-0.6%1%
+43 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$150.9M
24h Vol$4.1M
KALSHIAlso available on Limitless
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
23%
13.9%
5.5%
+3 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$12.2K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Polymarket
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
-0.4%19%
-0.5%14%
-2.1%10%
+125 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.2B
24h Vol$1.2M
POLYMARKETAlso available on Manifold Markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
-0.1%21.7%
+0.6%11.7%
-0.1%6.5%
+5 more outcomes
Community forecast13 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Myriad
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
4.6%73y
+0.1%48.3%
-0.1%4.5%
-0.1%22.1%
+29 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
MYRIADAlso available on Smarkets
Democratic Presidential Nominee
13.5%
0.1%
2.6%
+19 more outcomes
32 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$10.5K
24h Vol$1
SMARKETSRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve based on who becomes the Democratic Party's nominee for the 2028 presidential election, as determined by:
- Securing enough delegates to win the nomination at the Democratic National Convention, OR
- Being declared the presumptive nominee after all other candidates have dropped out or suspended their campaigns
- The market will resolve N/A if:
- The Democratic Party dissolves or ceases to exist before 2028
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve based on who becomes the Democratic Party's nominee for the 2028 presidential election, as determined by:
- Securing enough delegates to win the nomination at the Democratic National Convention, OR
- Being declared the presumptive nominee after all other candidates have dropped out or suspended their campaigns
- The market will resolve N/A if:
- The Democratic Party dissolves or ceases to exist before 2028