Conditional on (x) being the 2028 democratic nominee, (x) wins the 2028 presidential election
Politics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJosh Shapiro 59.2%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleOct 26, 25, 12:39 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be the Democratic nominee, and will they win the 2028 presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democratic nominee for 2028 presidential election be a female?
Manifold MarketsWill the Republican nominee or Democratic nominee for 2028 presidential election be a female?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democratic nominee of the 2028 presidential election be under the age of 50?
Manifold MarketsLA-05 Democratic nominee?
KalshiLA-04 Democratic nominee?
KalshiRules
Resolves yes if they are the nominee and win the presidency.
- Resolves no if they are the nominee and lose the presidency.
- Resolve N/A if they are not the nominee.
- Nominee being the person selected at the DNC as the presidential candidate.
- If the results of the election are overturned but they distribution of votes corresponds to a majority of electors, then that counts as winning.
