Who will be the Democratic nominee, and will they win the 2028 presidential election?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastSomeone else is the Democratic nominee and that person WINS the presidency 15.1%Leader of 22 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleAug 26, 26, 11:52 AM UTCNov 7, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves to the option that correctly identifies the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee and whether they win the 2028 U.S. presidential election.
- Democratic Nominee: The individual who officially secures the Democratic Party's presidential nomination at the 2028 Democratic National Convention (DNC) or is formally certified by the Democratic National Committee to appear on the general election ballot in November 2028.
- Winning the Presidency: The candidate will be treated as having won the 2028 presidential election once there is a clear consensus among major reputable news organizations that they are the president-elect.
- For this purpose, “clear consensus” means the Associated Press has called the race for the candidate and at least two of Reuters, the New York Times, CNN, Fox News, ABC News, CBS News, or NBC News have done the same.
- Resolution Rules:
- Only one option will resolve YES; all other options will resolve NO.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
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- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be the Democratic nominee, and will they win the 2028 presidential election??
- Manifold Markets prices Someone else is the Democratic nominee and that person WINS the presidency at 15% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be the Democratic nominee, and will they win the 2028 presidential election? resolve?
- Who will be the Democratic nominee, and will they win the 2028 presidential election? is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2028.
- How is Who will be the Democratic nominee, and will they win the 2028 presidential election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves to the option that correctly identifies the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee and whether they win the 2028 U.S. presidential election.