Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastGavin Newsom 21.2%Leader of 81 outcomes
Forecasters
1,873
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Aug 19, 23, 11:47 PMFeb 19, 29, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Gretchen Whitmer2%
Compare venues· Gavin Newsom
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on PredictIt
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2y
21%
16%
16%
+14 more outcomes
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?
2y
21.3%
+0.5pt16.9%
-0.1pt14.4%
+59 more outcomes
Community forecast484 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be the democratic nominee for president in 2028
2y
+0.7pt26%
-0.7pt20.8%
+0.2pt14.4%
+27 more outcomes
Community forecast44 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
Resolves to 100% whoever is chosen as the nominee at the Democratic National Convention in 2028
- Resolves to "None" if no one is nominated or if their is no convention.
- If for some reason the convention is postponed then this market resolves to whoever is nominated in the postponed convention.
- Unless the "postponed" convention takes place in or after 2032, in which case it resolves "None"
- Remember to bet for "Other".
- Any shares held in "Other" give you free shares for answers subsequently added
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$89Jul 821d of dataJul 28
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Resolves to 100% whoever is chosen as the nominee at the Democratic National Convention in 2028
- Resolves to "None" if no one is nominated or if their is no convention.
- If for some reason the convention is postponed then this market resolves to whoever is nominated in the postponed convention.
- Unless the "postponed" convention takes place in or after 2032, in which case it resolves "None"
- Remember to bet for "Other".
- Any shares held in "Other" give you free shares for answers subsequently added