Current community forecast
Pete Buttigieg 59.3%Leader of 24 outcomes
Forecasters
32
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleNov 20, 24, 12:30 AM UTCFeb 19, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsPete Buttigieg will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2028.
Manifold MarketsWho will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028? [limited responses for less lag]
Manifold MarketsLA-01 Democratic nominee?
KalshiLA-04 Democratic nominee?
KalshiLA-03 Democratic nominee?
KalshiRules
Once a nominee is chosen at the Democratic convention, all non-nominees will resolve N/A, leaving only the nominee.
- Then this market will convert to "Will NOMINEE win the 2028 presidential election?"
- I reserve the right to remove or modify duplicates or joke answers.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/predyx_markets/which-wing-will-win-the-us-presiden?play=true)
Open markets
base
POLYMARKETWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
- December 31, 2027+5.5pt56.8%
- June 30, 202734.2%
- December 31, 20268.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.9M
- 24h Vol
- $90.8K
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $500M59%
- $1B-1.0pt49%
- $2B43%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $749.4K
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?
- 70+100%
- 80+100%
- 90+100%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $68.1K
- 24h Vol
- $453.4
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
- No94.4%
- Yes5.6%
- Total Vol
- $93.1K
- 24h Vol
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?
- 5–7 wins40.2%
- 8-9 wins30.2%
- 10-11 wins13.2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $113
- 24h Vol
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]
- If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?79.6%
- If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?74.6%
- If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?63.9%
+3 more outcomes
- When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
- What is the base of the next nice number?
- What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?
- Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?
- What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?
- Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
- Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency??
- Manifold Markets prices Pete Buttigieg at 59% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency? resolve?
- If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency? is scheduled to resolve on February 19, 2029.
- How is If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Once a nominee is chosen at the Democratic convention, all non-nominees will resolve N/A, leaving only the nominee.