Israel x Iran ceasefire ends before Netanyahu out?
3.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElectionGeopoliticsMiddle East8mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Yes · —
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Stored reference
Yes 61%
Yes 61%Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$19.7
Liquidity
$591.4
Low liquidityOpen interest
$152.3
Bid / Ask
— / —
YesSpread
—
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Oct 21, 26, 9:19 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · Yes
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the ceasefire between Israel and Iran ends before Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If neither the end of the ceasefire nor Benjamin Netanyahu ceasing to be Prime Minister of Israel occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The ceasefire between Israel and Iran will be considered to have ended if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country after market creation.
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
