Manifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastDonald Trump 1.8%Leader of 25 outcomes
Forecasters
62
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 days ago
StaleOct 31, 23, 4:37 PMAug 1, 28, 3:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Donald Trump2%
Compare venues· JD Vance
Ordered by 24h volume| Venue | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMost active | 49% | — | $1.5M | $47.3M | 13 minutes ago | Open → |
 Kalshi | 41% | — | $109.8K | $35.4M | 8 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets | 40% | — | — | — | 7 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets | 39% | — | — | — | 9 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | 40% | — | — | — | 9 days ago | |
 PredictIt | 37% | — | — | — | 7 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless | 50% | — | $0 | $0 | 7 minutes ago | Open → |
 Myriad | 67% | — | $0 | $0 | 6 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on PredictIt
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
37%
29%
5%
+11 more outcomes
Retail prediction exchange
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
PREDICTITAlso available on Polymarket
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
49%
+0.1%40%
-0.3%25%
+125 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$670.7M
24h Vol$1.5M
POLYMARKETAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
2y
2.8%
2%
0.1%
+35 more outcomes
Community forecast799 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$1.1M
24h Vol$2.4K
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
39.4%
27.8%
3.5%
+3 more outcomes
Community forecast19 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$6.9K
24h Vol$125.1
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Limitless
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
23.5%
50%
2.9%
+4 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$15.2K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Myriad
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
5.6%73y
-0.1%67.4%
+0.4%8.4%
+0.1%6.2%
+29 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
MYRIADAlso available on Kalshi
2028 Republican presidential nominee
0.2%2y
+0.2%1%
3%
-1.0%29%
+35 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$50.7M
24h Vol$109.8K
KALSHIRules
Resolves to the individual nominated at the Republican National Convention in 2028.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Resolves to the individual nominated at the Republican National Convention in 2028.