Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
JD Vance 46.1%+0.3ptLeader of 19 outcomes
Forecasters
520
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.1 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 14, 24, 5:38 AM UTCSep 6, 28, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be the 2028 Republican nominee for President?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the Republican nominee for President in 2028?
Manifold MarketsNH-01 Republican nominee?
KalshiRI-02 Republican nominee?
KalshiDE-AL Republican nominee?
KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" for the candidate officially nominated by the Republican Party for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election, as confirmed by the party's official announcement or at the Republican National Convention.
- If no candidate is nominated, it will resolve to "No."
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 2028 Republican nominee??
- Manifold Markets prices JD Vance at 46% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does 2028 Republican nominee? resolve?
- 2028 Republican nominee? is scheduled to resolve on September 6, 2028.
- How is 2028 Republican nominee? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" for the candidate officially nominated by the Republican Party for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election, as confirmed by the party's official announcement or at the Republican National Convention.