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Data as of Sep 20, 2026, 9:22 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Mike Johnson 9%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$21.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Feb 26, 26, 3:00 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
LA-02 Democratic nominee?
KalshiLA-01 Republican nominee?
KalshiLA-05 Republican nominee?
KalshiWill Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the named outcome wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 LA-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Republican Party of Louisiana
- **Important information:** Louisiana's 2026 U.S. House elections have reverted from closed party primaries to an open "jungle" primary system.
- Under this system, all candidates appear on a single ballot regardless of party, and the state-administered election does not produce a formal party nominee.
- A candidate's party affiliation on the ballot is an informational designation, not a nomination, and party endorsements do not constitute nominations for purposes of this event.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.6pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+41.0pt56%
- Nicolás Maduro-39.9pt43%
- No Head of State-0.1pt1%
+13 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $706.6M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $221.9M
- 24h Vol
- $635.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep-1.0pt58.6%
- D-House, R-Senate30.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.2pt10.1%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.7M
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
- What will Trump say this week?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for LA-04 Republican nominee??
- Kalshi prices Mike Johnson at 9% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does LA-04 Republican nominee? resolve?
- LA-04 Republican nominee? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2027.
- How is LA-04 Republican nominee? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 LA-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.