JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionAI11moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92%
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17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleApr 14, 25, 6:51 PM UTCAug 30, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will JD Vance be the 2028 Republican nominee for President?
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Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028?
FutuurWill JD Vance win the Republican Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExNH-01 Republican nominee?
KalshiRules
Being very specific here.
- It's got to be both JD Vance as the nominee, and in his nomination speech he's also got to give a speech where the main topic of the speech is CLEARLY AI. i.e. not just mentioned, but mentioned FIRST if multiple issues are raised; and if multiple issues are mentioned, then impartial textual and emotional analysis should reveal that the major issue he's giving his position on is about AI.
- Deadline: whatever the normal (or rescheduled) republican party is (or the natural successor party, if there is one)
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention resolve?
- JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention is scheduled to resolve on August 30, 2027.
- How is JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Being very specific here.