Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 11:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastJ.D. Vance 43.4%-1.0ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
25
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMay 18, 26, 11:08 AM UTCJul 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028?
FutuurWho will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2028 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2028 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?
Manifold MarketsWill the Republican presidential candidate endorsed by Trump win the 2028 Republican primaries?
Manifold Markets2028 Republican presidential nominee
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the individual who officially secures the Republican Party nomination for President of the United States in the 2028 election.
- The winner will be determined by the official results of the 2028 Republican National Convention.
- The market will resolve to the candidate who receives the majority of delegate votes required for the nomination.
- If a candidate other than those listed becomes the nominee, the "Other" option will resolve to YES.
- If the 2028 Republican National Convention is cancelled or if the party fails to nominate a candidate, the market will resolve N/A.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Limitless — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 · J.D. Vance 44%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Who will be the Republican nominee for President in 2028? · JD Vance 44%
- Also available on PredictIt — Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · JD Vance 39%
- Also available on Polymarket — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 · J.D. Vance 44%
- Also available on Kalshi — 2028 Republican presidential nominee ·
