Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 11, 2026, 12:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastJ. D. Vance 83.5%Leader of 21 outcomes
Forecasters
59
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 days ago
StaleOct 10, 23, 3:05 PMJun 17, 28, 6:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Ron Desantis52%
Compare venues· J. D. Vance
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall88% match · verified | Medium | 78% | — | $1.7K | $163.3K | 16 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 84% | — | — | — | 16 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1.0 pts1y
78%
-3.0pt70%
+2.0pt62%
+31 more outcomes
67 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$392.3K
24h Vol$1.7K
KALSHIRules
This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format.
- The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers.
- Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.
- Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries will resolve YES.
- The criteria here are:
- The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$26Jul 93d of dataJul 11
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This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format.
- The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers.
- Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.
- Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries will resolve YES.
- The criteria here are:
- The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls.