Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1.0 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection1y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityJ.D. Vance 78%Leader of 34 outcomes
Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.9K
Liquidity
$163.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
10.0% / 13.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Mar 22, 25, 2:00 PMJan 1, 28, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Donald J. Trump12%
Compare venues· J.D. Vance
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 78% | — | $1.9K | $163.3K | 21 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets88% match · verified | — | 84% | — | — | — | 16 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
1y
83.5%
60.9%
59.1%
+18 more outcomes
Community forecast59 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
Vance announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Donald J.
- Trump announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump Jr. announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Tulsi Gabbard announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Ron DeSantis announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1.9kJul 227d of dataJul 28
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Vance announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Donald J.
- Trump announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump Jr. announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Tulsi Gabbard announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Ron DeSantis announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.