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Who will run for the 2028 Republican nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers]
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
JD Vance 81.6%Leader of 37 outcomes
Forecasters
54
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleDec 13, 24, 2:50 PM UTCFeb 16, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PredictItRules
Resolution Criteria
- For each candidate listed, the market will resolve YES if they:
- Officially announce their candidacy for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, OR
- File paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to run for president as a Republican in 2028, OR
- Takes part in an official Republican presidential debate, OR
- Appear on any state's Republican presidential primary ballot in 2028
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will run for the 2028 Republican nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers]?
- Manifold Markets prices JD Vance at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will run for the 2028 Republican nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers] resolve?
- Who will run for the 2028 Republican nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers] is scheduled to resolve on February 16, 2028.
- How is Who will run for the 2028 Republican nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria