Who will run for the 2028 Democratic nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers]
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection5moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastGavin Newsom 89.2%Leader of 28 outcomes
Forecasters
108
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleDec 9, 24, 1:37 PM UTCMar 6, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PredictItWill Gavin Newsom win the Democratic Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExWill Josh Shapiro win the Democratic Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExRules
The 2028 Democratic presidential nomination race is beginning to take shape, with several prominent figures emerging as potential candidates.
- Resolution Criteria
- For each candidate listed, the market will resolve YES if they:
- Officially announce their candidacy for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, OR
- File paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to run for president as a Democrat in 2028, OR
- Takes part in an official Democratic presidential debate, OR
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will run for the 2028 Democratic nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers]?
- Manifold Markets prices Gavin Newsom at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will run for the 2028 Democratic nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers] resolve?
- Who will run for the 2028 Democratic nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers] is scheduled to resolve on March 6, 2027.
- How is Who will run for the 2028 Democratic nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The 2028 Democratic presidential nomination race is beginning to take shape, with several prominent figures emerging as potential candidates.
- Where else is Who will run for the 2028 Democratic nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers] listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.