Will Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?
PoliticsMusicOne-OffUS PoliticsEntertainment2y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 27%
Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$0.8
Liquidity
$59.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
27.0% / 28.0%
Spread
3.7%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Jan 26, 25, 3:00 PMJan 20, 29, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes27%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 73% | — | $0.8 | $59.2K | 19 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets90% match · verified | — | 90% | — | — | — | 17 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?
2y
9.9%
90.1%
Community forecast46 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If, as part of Section IV of the 25th Amendment, the Vice President (and a majority of the Cabinet or some other body designated by Congress) transmit to Congress a written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$0.82Jul 39d of dataJul 11
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If, as part of Section IV of the 25th Amendment, the Vice President (and a majority of the Cabinet or some other body designated by Congress) transmit to Congress a written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.