Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84.4%
Forecasters
48
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleOct 16, 24, 6:00 AM UTCJan 20, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves 'YES' if Vance issues written declaration to Congress that Trump is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, as described in Section 4 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment.
- Resolves 'YES' immediately upon such a declaration, even if Trump is only temporarily divested of authority.
- Would also resolve 'YES' if Trump voluntarily transfers presidential authority to Vance, as described in Section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment, IF AND ONLY IF Vance assumes presidential authority for a continuous duration in excess of one week (7 days).
- Resolves 'N/A' if Trump is not elected President in 2024.
- See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
- 2024-11-21: Edited title "If Trump wins the 2024 election, will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority?" -> "Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?"
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump? resolve?
- Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves 'YES' if Vance issues written declaration to Congress that Trump is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, as described in Section 4 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment.
- Where else is Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.