Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?

Politics2y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jun 24, 2026, 2:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

Yes 9.9%

Forecasters

46

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 17 days ago

Stale

Oct 16, 24, 6:00 AMJan 20, 29, 7:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Yes10%

Stake (USDT)

Compare venues· No

Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume

Venue	Quality	Probability	vs reference	24h Vol	Liq	Freshness
KalshiBest overall90% match · verified	Medium	73%	—	$54.6	$59.2K	5 minutes ago	Open →
Manifold MarketsThis page	—	90%	—	—	—	17 days ago

Also available on Kalshi

100pt disagreement · Manifold Markets is higher

Will Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?

1.0%2y

Yes

-1.0%27%

No

73%

72 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$147.9K

24h Vol$54.6

KALSHI

Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?

Politics2y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jun 24, 2026, 2:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

Yes 9.9%

Forecasters

46

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 17 days ago

Stale

Oct 16, 24, 6:00 AMJan 20, 29, 7:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Yes10%

Stake (USDT)

Compare venues· No

Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume

Venue	Quality	Probability	vs reference	24h Vol	Liq	Freshness
KalshiBest overall90% match · verified	Medium	73%	—	$54.6	$59.2K	5 minutes ago	Open →
Manifold MarketsThis page	—	90%	—	—	—	17 days ago

Also available on Kalshi

100pt disagreement · Manifold Markets is higher

Will Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?

1.0%2y

Yes

-1.0%27%

No

73%

72 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$147.9K

24h Vol$54.6

KALSHI

Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

Related Markets

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$4.5M

Elizabeth Warren: 0%

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Presidential Election Winner 2028

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JD Vance: 20%

POLYMARKET

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

$982.6K

Gavin Newsom: 19%

POLYMARKET

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

$490.1K

Starmer - UK PM: 98%

POLYMARKET

What will Trump say this week?

$377.7K

Newscum: 99%

KALSHI

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

$251.7K

Ron DeSantis: 3%

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$63,896.67-0.50%

SolanaSOL$76.61-1.96%

EthereumETH$1,801.58+0.17%

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DogecoinDOGE$0.073-1.75%