Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastZohran Mamdani 27.4%-2.0ptLeader of 49 outcomes
Forecasters
214
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-1.2 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Nov 30, 25, 7:39 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
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PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of The Year.
- It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
- If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.
- In ambiguous cases, I will try to match the resolution of the market to who Wikipedia lists in their TIME Person of The Year article.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — TIME Person of the Year 2026 · Zohran Mamdani 30%
- Also available on Futuur — TIME Person of the Year 2026 · Zohran Mamdani 37%
- Also available on Kalshi — Time's Person of the Year for 2026 · Zohran Mamdani 30%
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year??
- Manifold Markets prices Zohran Mamdani at 27% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? resolve?
- Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of The Year.
- Where else is Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket, Futuur, Kalshi.