Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 3:24 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Zohran Mamdani 27.2%+2.1ptLeader of 20 outcomes
Zohran Mamdani 27.2%+2.1ptForecasters
329
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.1 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleDec 8, 25, 4:45 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of the Year.
- It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
- If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit it in a comment below.
- If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it, and you'll get a bonus.
- Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options.
- The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories.