Current implied probability
July 31 100%+0.4ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$275.5
Liquidity
$4.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+18.9 pts
Market data
Updated 10 days ago
StaleApr 2, 26, 10:14 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
July 31100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· July 31
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Low | 100% | — | $275.5 | $4.1K | 10 days ago | |
 Manifold Markets82% match · verified | — | 100% | — | — | — | 5 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Kimi K3 (Moonshot) release date
Closed
+1.0pt100%
+1.0pt100%
+1.0pt100%
+9 more outcomes
Community forecast33 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5.
- The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
- Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
- For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$275Jul 711d of dataJul 17
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5.
- The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
- Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
- For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.