This market resolved: July 31
Resolved: Jul 17, 2026, 3:04 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
July 31
At 7 days out
81%
At 24 hours out
100%
ConsensusProbability Timeline
July 31100%
July 31Won
May 31Lost
April 30Lost
June 30Lost
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5.
- The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
- Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
- For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
