This market resolved: July 31
Resolved: Jul 17, 2026, 3:04 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
July 31 100%+0.4ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$275.5
Liquidity
$4.1K
Medium liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+18.9 pts
Market data
Updated 55 days ago
StaleApr 2, 26, 10:14 PM UTCJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Probability Timeline
July 31100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketGemini 4.0 released by which date?
PolymarketWhich AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5.
- The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
- Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
- For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+12.5pt89%
- 2026+22.0pt71%
- September 30, 2026+19.0pt43%
- Total Vol
- $145.2K
- 24h Vol
- $62K
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+8.0pt42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-1.0pt25.7%
- Yang-Mills+13.8pt15.2%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+33.0pt90%
- 2026+40.0pt72%
- September 30, 2026+21.0pt35%
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-23.0pt38%
- 2027-1.0pt17%
- 2026-1.0pt6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt62.8%
- ChatGPT-0.2pt20.6%
- Gemini-0.9pt6.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.7M
- Anthropic market share this week
- Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- Tencent market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Kimi K3 released by which date??
- Polymarket prices July 31 at 100% as of July 17, 2026.
- When does Kimi K3 released by which date? resolve?
- Kimi K3 released by which date? is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2026.
- How is Kimi K3 released by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.