Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 10:37 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Top 10 · —
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Stored reference
Top 10 96%Leader of 4 outcomes
Top 10 96%Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$3.9K
Liquidity
$4.8K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$3.5K
Bid / Ask
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Top 10Spread
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Comments
0
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleOct 28, 26, 9:54 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · Top 10
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Rank Debut?
PolymarketKimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Rank Debut?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext GPT Terra Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketWill Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before November 5, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic release its next Claude Fable model (newer than Fable 5.1)?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) holds a rank within the specified top ranks when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None), in the "Models" view, and with no other filters applied will be used to resolve this market.
- A model debuts within the specified top ranks if its displayed rank at the check time is equal to or better than the specified rank (for example, a displayed rank of 4 is within the the named outcome and the the named outcome).
