PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Jun 13, 2026, 6:30 AM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Probability Timeline
50%+100%
25%+Won
50%+Won
30%+Won
40%+Won
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
- This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3.
- Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
- The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
