What are the current odds for Rogue AIs before 2028??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 73.7% as of October 27, 2026.

When does Rogue AIs before 2028? resolve?

Rogue AIs before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.

One-OffAI1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 73.7%

Forecasters

196

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Stale

Aug 31, 26, 5:41 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Will there be AI agents operating autonomously without human control that cannot be shutdown before 2028?

The spirit of this question is trying to operationalize AI agents "escaping the box" and becoming free.
I'll try to resolve in this spirit.
Deliberate release of rogue AIs would still count.
Note that this condition doesn't necessarily require AI agents to exfiltrate their own weights.