PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Jul 1, 2026, 6:03 AM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Probability Timeline
December 31, 20250%
March0%
June 30,0%
December 31, 2025Lost
MarchLost
June 30,Lost
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the named outcome, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
- The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
- Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g.
