KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2031 90%Leader of 12 outcomes
Market quality
55 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.6K
Liquidity
$70.4K
High liquiditySpread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Mar 3, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?
Manifold MarketsWhen will OpenAI achieve AGI?
KalshiA company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
Manifold MarketsWill AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostABCCBSCNNFox BusinessMSNBCNBCthe Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR databaseThe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsReutersthe Associated PressFinancial TimesCNBCYahoo FinanceMarketWatchAxiosPoliticoThe Information
- To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify.
- For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.
Open markets
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 160-179+3.0pt25.5%
- 180-199+7.0pt25.5%
- 200-219+5.0pt17.9%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $517K
- 24h Vol
- $163K
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA-2.0pt77%
- Apple+2.3pt16%
- Alphabet6%
+5 more outcomes
KALSHIWhat will Kroger say during their next earnings call?
- Deflation+44.0pt99%
- SNAP / Food Stamp+46.0pt99%
- Tariff+87.0pt99%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA-1.1pt97%
- Apple+1.4pt3%
- Alphabet+0.1pt0%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHIWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- No93%
- Yes7%
- Total Vol
- $3.2M
- 24h Vol
- $41.9K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- 180-19918.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt16.4%
- 200-219-1.0pt15.4%
+23 more outcomes
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
- Monster Energy Point of Sale Growth in September
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- What will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit Week of September 7 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will any company achieve AGI??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 1, 2031 at 90% as of September 11, 2026.
- When does When will any company achieve AGI? resolve?
- When will any company achieve AGI? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is When will any company achieve AGI? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.