KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2030 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2030 81.5%Leader of 12 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2030 81.5%Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$9.1K
Open interest
$122.8K
High open interestBid / Ask
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Before Jan 1, 2030Spread
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Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Mar 3, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Before Oct 1, 2026Lost
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2030
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostABCCBSCNNFox BusinessMSNBCNBCthe Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR databaseThe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsReutersthe Associated PressFinancial TimesCNBCYahoo FinanceMarketWatchAxiosPoliticoThe Information
- To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2030
- If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2031
- If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2028
- If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2028
- If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Oct 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Apr 1, 2028
- If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2027
- If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2026
- If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.