KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityBefore Jan 1, 2031 83%Leader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.8K
Liquidity
$44.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
33.0% / 36.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Mar 3, 26, 3:00 PMOct 1, 27, 3:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before Oct 1, 202737%
Volume trend
$2.8kJul 225d of dataJul 28
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What will Palantir say during their next earnings call?
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Perplexity valued at 50B+ USD before 2027?
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MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
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If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify.
- For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.
- If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.