KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before 2030 72%+7.0ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$7K
Liquidity
$355.2K
High liquiditySpread
2.3 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Aug 25, 25, 5:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?
Manifold MarketsWhen will any company achieve AGI?
KalshiWill AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:OpenAI
- If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Total Vol
- $280.7K
- 24h Vol
- $148.9K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $406.5K
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will OpenAI achieve AGI??
- Kalshi prices Before 2030 at 72% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does When will OpenAI achieve AGI? resolve?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is When will OpenAI achieve AGI? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.