Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore 2051 50.4%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleSep 23, 25, 3:38 PM UTCDec 31, 50, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market predicts the year when OpenAI will achieve its stated goal of creating "a factory that can produce a gigawatt of new AI infrastructure every week."
- Context: In his blog post "Abundant Intelligence," (https://blog.samaltman.com/abundant-intelligence) Sam Altman wrote: "Our vision is simple: we want to create a factory that can produce a gigawatt of new AI infrastructure every week.
- The execution of this will be extremely difficult; it will take us years to get to this milestone and it will require innovation at every level of the stack, from chips to power to building to robotics."
- Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to the year when OpenAI officially announces or credible sources confirm that it has achieved the capability to produce 1 gigawatt of new AI infrastructure on a weekly basis.
- Resolution Sources:
- OpenAI official announcements: https://openai.com/blog
