Current community forecast
No 97%
Forecasters
69
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJul 5, 23, 9:39 PM UTCJul 5, 27, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
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ForecastExRules
On July 5, 2023, OpenAI announced their "Superalignment" initiative:
- https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment
- Our goal is to solve the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment in four years.
- While this is an incredibly ambitious goal and we’re not guaranteed to succeed, we are optimistic that a focused, concerted effort can solve this problem
- In a footnote to this passage, OpenAI states
- If we fail to have a very high level of confidence in our solutions, we hope our findings let us and the community plan appropriately
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06? resolve?
- Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06? is scheduled to resolve on July 5, 2027.
- How is Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: On July 5, 2023, OpenAI announced their "Superalignment" initiative: