Current community forecast
Anthropic 40.3%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleAug 29, 24, 3:58 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 6:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
Manifold MarketsWhen will any company achieve AGI?
KalshiIf AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to the company which has created the AI model which triggered the resolution of the weak AGI question on Metaculus.
- This market will be extended until the weak AGI is achieved.
- If the model is a finetune, i will resolve to the creator of the base model.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/3479/?theme=dark)
Open markets
basePOLYMARKETWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
- December 31, 2027+5.5pt56.8%
- June 30, 202734.2%
- December 31, 20268.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.9M
- 24h Vol
- $90.8K
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $500M59%
- $1B-1.0pt49%
- $2B43%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $749.4K
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?
- 70+100%
- 80+100%
- 90+100%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $68.1K
- 24h Vol
- $453.4
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
- No94.4%
- Yes5.6%
- Total Vol
- $93.1K
- 24h Vol
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?
- 5–7 wins40.2%
- 8-9 wins30.2%
- 10-11 wins13.2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $113
- 24h Vol
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]
- If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?79.6%
- If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?74.6%
- If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?63.9%
+3 more outcomes
- When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
- What is the base of the next nice number?
- What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?
- Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?
- What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?
- Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
- Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"??
- Manifold Markets prices Anthropic at 40% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"? resolve?
- Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to the company which has created the AI model which triggered the resolution of the weak AGI question on Metaculus.