Current community forecast
Anthropic 40.3%Leader of 7 outcomes
Anthropic 40.3%Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleAug 29, 24, 3:58 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 6:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
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Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsWho invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves to the company which has created the AI model which triggered the resolution of the weak AGI question on Metaculus.
- This market will be extended until the weak AGI is achieved.
- If the model is a finetune, i will resolve to the creator of the base model.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/3479/?theme=dark)
