Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)?

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 89.1% as of October 31, 2026.

When does Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) resolve?

Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.

How is Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria are the same as for the metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Google-1.0pt56.6%
• Anthropic+0.5pt35.4%
• OpenAI-0.1pt6.1%

+12 more outcomes

Total Vol

$3.7M

24h Vol

$213.3K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+2.5pt31%
• $2.0–$2.25T+1.2pt22%
• $1.5–$1.75T-7.7pt16%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini-4.0pt52.5%
• Claude+2.5pt39%
• ChatGPT+1.1pt

POLYMARKET

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

• SpaceX+3.5pt58%
• Anthropic-4.2pt42%
• ByteDance0%

+9 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,-5.0pt85%
• December 15,-6.5pt83%
• November 30,-3.0pt80%

+15 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Date

• November 20+6.5pt24%
• No IPO by November 30, 2026+4.0pt20%
• November 18-4.0pt17%

+9 more outcomes

• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• When will Gemini Carbon be released?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Gemini Carbon released by which date?
• Gemini Carbon released on?
• Best AI this week
• When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
• OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• Google market share this week
• OpenAI market share this week