Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)?

Manifold Markets prices No at 62% as of October 28, 2026.

When does Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) resolve?

Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.

How is Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria are the same as for the metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/

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KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini+17.8pt48%
• Claude-14.4pt45.2%
• ChatGPT-0.4pt6.1%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$15.9M

24h Vol

$184.9K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+1.2pt95%
• December 15,+1.0pt93%
• November 30,-2.0pt87%

+15 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt27.7%
• $2.0–$2.25T+1.7pt23.8%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.7pt15.8%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Google+16.0pt50.5%
• Anthropic-14.5pt41.4%
• OpenAI-0.2pt6.1%

+12 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+3.1pt98%
• Anthropic-3.0pt2%
• Alibaba-0.1pt0%

+18 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

• $1.5T–$1.75T+3.8pt21%
• <$1T-8.3pt21%
• $1.25T–$1.5T+0.6pt19%

+5 more outcomes

• When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO?
• Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• Gemini Carbon released by which date?
• Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?