KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Hike 25bps 94%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$110
Low liquiditySpread
10.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Aug 25, 26, 6:00 PM UTCDec 18, 26, 3:29 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Bank of Japan takes the action of the named outcome at December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Trading Economics
- The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank.
- For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count.
- If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.
- The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Bank of Japan rate decision in December?
- Kalshi prices Hike 25bps at 94% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Bank of Japan rate decision in December resolve?
- Bank of Japan rate decision in December is scheduled to resolve on December 18, 2026.
- How is Bank of Japan rate decision in December settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Bank of Japan takes the action of the named outcome at December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
