KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Hike 25bps · —
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Stored price
Hike 25bps 71.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
Hike 25bps 71.5%Market quality
62 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$95.7
Open interest
$3.5K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Hike 25bpsSpread
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Market data
Updated 25 minutes ago
Aug 25, 26, 6:00 PM UTCDec 18, 26, 3:29 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Hike 25bps
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Hike 25bps at December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Trading Economics
- The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
Rules for each outcome
- Hike 25bps
- If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Hike 25bps at December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Maintain current rate
- If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Maintain current rate at December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cut more than 25bps
- If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Cut more than 25bps at December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cut 25bps
- If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Cut 25bps at December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Hike more than 25bps
- If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Hike more than 25bps at December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Bank of Japan Decision in December? · 25 bps increase 72%
