PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No change 95%+3.8%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$4.1M
Liquidity
$5M
High liquidityBid / Ask
95.2% / 95.3%
Spread
0.1%
Tight spread7d Change
+16.8%
Market data
Updated 28 minutes ago
Mar 20, 26, 12:12 AMJul 29, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
No change95%
Compare venues· No change
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Limitless
Fed Decision in July?
14d
94.8%
4.8%
1.2%
+2 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$6K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESS
Also available on Kalshi
Fed decision in Jul 2026?
2.0%13d
+2.0%95%
-3.0%4%
1%
+2 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$20.5M
24h Vol$2.1M
KALSHIRules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
- The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
- This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
- If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
- (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
- The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$4.4k97.0%KALSHIHike 25bps — No4h ago
KALSHIHike 25bps — No4h ago$19.1k95.1%POLYMARKETWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — YesSerene-Decision5h ago
POLYMARKETWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — YesSerene-Decision5h ago$20.1k99.8%POLYMARKETWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Nothird-eye7h ago
POLYMARKETWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Nothird-eye7h ago$141.1k99.8%POLYMARKETWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — NoJAHODA7h ago
POLYMARKETWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — NoJAHODA7h ago$94.0k94.0%KALSHIFed maintains rate — Yes7h ago
KALSHIFed maintains rate — Yes7h ago$206.1k94.0%KALSHIFed maintains rate — Yes7h ago
KALSHIFed maintains rate — Yes7h ago$32.7k94.0%KALSHIFed maintains rate — Yes7h ago
KALSHIFed maintains rate — Yes7h ago$17.9k94.0%KALSHIHike 25bps — No7h ago
KALSHIHike 25bps — No7h agoVolume trend
$4.1MJul 214d of dataJul 15
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The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
- The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
- This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
- If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
- (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
- The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.