Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 30, 2026, 4:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
No change100%
50+ bps decrease2%
25 bps decrease3%
25 bps increase0%
50+ bps increase0%
No changeWon
50+ bps decreaseLost
25 bps decreaseLost
25 bps increaseLost
50+ bps increaseLost
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
- The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
- This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
- If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
- (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
- The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
