KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Above -0.30 · —
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Stored price
Above -0.30 90.5%Leader of 7 outcomes
Above -0.30 90.5%Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.5K
Open interest
$1.5K
Low open interestBid / Ask
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Above -0.30Spread
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Market data
Updated 45 minutes ago
LaggingOct 26, 26, 4:00 PM UTCNov 23, 26, 1:29 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Above -0.30
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index in October
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PolymarketRules
If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October 2026 is above -0.30, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - CFNAI
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (“CFNAI”) refers to the headline monthly index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. It does not refer to the CFNAI three-month moving average (“CFNAI-MA3”) or the CFNAI Diffusion Index. This market will resolve using the value for October 2026 published in the first Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago release that reports the October 2026 CFNAI. Subsequent revisions will not affect settlement.
Rules for each outcome
- Above -0.30
- If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October 2026 is above -0.30, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -0.20
- If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October 2026 is above -0.20, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -0.10
- If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October 2026 is above -0.10, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.00
- If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October 2026 is above 0.00, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.10
- If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October 2026 is above 0.10, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.20
- If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October 2026 is above 0.20, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.30
- If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October 2026 is above 0.30, then the market resolves to Yes.
