KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Above 90 · —
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Stored price
Above 96 66.4%Market line of 11 lines
Above 96 66.4%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$161
Open interest
$1.9K
Low open interestBid / Ask
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Above 90Spread
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Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Oct 15, 26, 11:18 PM UTCNov 5, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Above 90
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
If the Carbon Arc Big box credit card spend array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 96, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Carbon Arc
- For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on the Carbon Arc Big Box Array value for the full month covered by this market, as recorded by Kalshi at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 4th calendar day after the end of that month. For example, the value for August is recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on September 4. Later corrections or revisions will not affect the recorded value. The reference is Carbon Arc's published full-month Big Box Array level: https://www.carbonarc.co/prisms?prism=e7120baa-c555-4766-b1b7-99012347c8cd&entity=Big+Box. The underlying metric is credit card spend. The array is the equally weighted arithmetic mean of its constituent year-over-year indices. At listing, its members are Walmart Inc., Target, Best Buy Co, Costco Wholesale Corporation, each weighted 1/4. Each constituent index is 100 when its measured credit card spend equals the same month of the previous year; the array averages these indices. An array level of 103 means the constituents' average year-over-year growth is 3%, and 97 means their average decline is 3%. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying companies. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 90
- If the Carbon Arc Big box credit card spend array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 90, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 88
- If the Carbon Arc Big box credit card spend array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 88, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 92
- If the Carbon Arc Big box credit card spend array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 92, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 94
- If the Carbon Arc Big box credit card spend array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 94, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 96
- If the Carbon Arc Big box credit card spend array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 96, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 98
- If the Carbon Arc Big box credit card spend array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 98, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 100
- If the Carbon Arc Big box credit card spend array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 100, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 102
- If the Carbon Arc Big box credit card spend array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 102, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 104
- If the Carbon Arc Big box credit card spend array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 104, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 106
- If the Carbon Arc Big box credit card spend array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 106, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 108
- If the Carbon Arc Big box credit card spend array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 108, then the market resolves to Yes.