KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 82% (99%)
Resolved: Oct 22, 2026, 6:10 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 22, 2026, 5:25 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 84%65%
Above 85.5%3%
Above 87.5%1%
Above 83.5%1%
Above 82%Won
Above 82.5%Lost
Above 83%Lost
Above 84%Lost
Above 85%Lost
Above 84.5%Lost
Above 87%Lost
Above 83.5%Lost
Above 85.5%Lost
Above 86%Lost
Above 86.5%Lost
Above 87.5%Lost
Above 88%Lost
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PolymarketRules
If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 82% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Fiscal.ai
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Rules for each outcome
- Above 82%
- If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 82% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 82.5%
- If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 82.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 83%
- If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 83% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 84%
- If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 84.0% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 85%
- If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 85.0% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 84.5%
- If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 84.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 87%
- If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 87.0% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 83.5%
- If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 83.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 85.5%
- If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 85.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 86%
- If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 86.0% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 86.5%
- If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 86.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 87.5%
- If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 87.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 88%
- If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 88.0% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.