KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Above -0.62 · —
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Stored price
Above -0.50 49.5%Market line of 7 lines
Above -0.50 49.5%Market quality
45 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$200
Open interest
$7.8K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Above -0.62Spread
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Market data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 5:30 PM UTCOct 28, 26, 12:29 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Above -0.62
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September
KalshiCPI-U index in October
KalshiWhat will the Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index hit by October 31?
PolymarketWhat will the Ethereum Implied Volatility Index hit by October 31?
PolymarketWill the US Consumer Confidence Index be above 88 in October 2026?
ForecastExWill the US Consumer Confidence Index be above 72 in October 2026?
ForecastExRules
If the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 is above -0.50, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
- The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (“NFCI”) refers to the headline NFCI published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. It does not refer to the Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (“ANFCI”) or any individual component or contribution to the NFCI. This market will resolve using the NFCI value for the week ending October 23, 2026 published in the first Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago update that reports that week. Subsequent revisions will not affect settlement.
Rules for each outcome
- Above -0.62
- If the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 is above -0.62, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -0.60
- If the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 is above -0.60, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -0.56
- If the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 is above -0.56, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -0.58
- If the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 is above -0.58, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -0.54
- If the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 is above -0.54, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -0.52
- If the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 is above -0.52, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -0.50
- If the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 is above -0.50, then the market resolves to Yes.
