Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
4.0% (24h)CommoditiesOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 12%-0.0%
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.7K
Liquidity
$24.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
11.0% / 12.0%
Spread
9.1%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jul 9, 26, 1:46 PMSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes12%
Volume trend
$2.7kJul 94d of dataJul 12
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
- Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
- An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.