PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilitySeptember 30 8%-6.0pt
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$105.1K
Liquidity
$64.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.2% / 6.2%
Spread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 28, 26, 3:28 AMSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
September 308%
Volume trend
$105.1kJul 282d of dataJul 29
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Ukraine through a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, Kyiv time.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Ukraine.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g.