PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Sep 30, 2026, 6:35 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
September 30 0%
September 30 0%Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$36.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
Comments
15
7d Change
-0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Jul 28, 26, 3:28 AM UTCSep 30, 26, 8:59 PM UTC
Trends
August 31Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Iran target an Arab country by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target Iraq by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target Kuwait by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target Jordan by which date?
PolymarketWill a NATO aircraft shoot down a missile or drone fired towards a target in Ukraine before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Ukraine through a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, Kyiv time.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Ukraine.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.