PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityJuly 12 83%+74.0%Leader of 23 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$137.9K
Liquidity
$405.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
75.0% / 90.0%
Spread
20.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jul 8, 26, 10:21 PMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
July 1283%
Volume trend
$137.9kJul 85d of dataJul 12
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST).
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
- Qualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.