PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 37%+0.5%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$43.4K
Liquidity
$138.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 5.1%
Spread
2.0%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jun 22, 26, 7:40 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3137%
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade.
- An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy.
- A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade.
- A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade.