PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDonald Trump 100%+73.0%Leader of 20 outcomes
Market quality
80 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$3.7K
Liquidity
$421.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
2.7% / 2.9%
Spread
7.4%
Moderate spread7d Change
+0.9%
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jun 12, 26, 12:26 AMAug 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa3%
Volume trend
$3.7kJul 212d of dataJul 13
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.
- The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.
- The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.
- Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.