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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Middle East
  3. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

1.0% (24h)Middle EastOne-Off24d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 25%-0.0%
Market quality

89 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$232.2K

Liquidity

$138.1K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

24.0% / 25.0%

Spread

4.2%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Jun 13, 26, 9:49 PMJul 15, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Yes25%

Manifold MarketsAlso available on Manifold Markets

Manifold Markets

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? [Polymarket]

24d
Manifold Markets
Yes
24%
Manifold Markets
No
76%
Community forecast45 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$6.9K
24h Vol$1.6K
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
  • Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
  • This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
  • If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$63,878.51+1.39%EthereumETH$1,727.85+1.63%SolanaSOL$71.80+4.25%DogecoinDOGE$0.0833+0.58%XRPXRP$1.14+1.12%BNBBNB$585.87+1.21%

Related News

US ends Iran blockade; Polymarket sees Hormuz normal by July at 46%Blockchain.NewsTrump Iran MOU keeps enrichment status quo as Polymarket Yes slips to 19.5%Blockchain.NewsTrump–Pezeshkian MOU signed, Polymarket cuts Iran enrichment-end odds to 61.5%Blockchain.NewsTrump–Iran deal targets Hormuz reopening as Polymarket normal-traffic odds slipBlockchain.NewsTrump–Pezeshkian peace memo puts Iran enrichment end at 74.5% on PolymarketBlockchain.NewsIran threatens Hormuz shutdown as Israel strikes put U.S. deal at riskCrypto News

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
  • Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
  • This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
  • If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.